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A wave of retiring Boomers means the generation will soon be at "peak burden" to the economy. It's the Baby Boomers, who are aging fast and approaching their "peak burden" years in regard to their drag on the economy and the resources of younger generations. Advertisement"The peak burden is [when] all the baby boomers have hit retirement," Millar told Business Insider. And it isn't the case that Baby Boomers will derail economic growth nearly as much as, say, a full-blown recession, according to Dean Baker, an economist who described the Baby Boomers as a "time bomb" in a 1998 paper. In 2022, empty-nester baby boomers owned 28% of large homes in the US, a Redfin analysis found, double the share of millennial families.
Persons: , Zers, Jonathan Millar, Millar, Dean Baker, That's, Boomers, David Rosenberg, Baker, Gen Organizations: Boomers, Service, Barclays, National Association of Realtors, Chamber of Commerce, Rosenberg Research, Social, Insurance Trust Fund, Social Security Administration Locations: Millennials
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Barclays' Jonathan Millar and Lindsey Group's Larry LindseyLarry Lindsey, president and CEO at The Lindsey Group, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's rate plan for the remainder of the year, upward pressure on the inflation rate, and changing labor participation rates.
Persons: Jonathan Millar, Lindsey Group's Larry Lindsey Larry Lindsey, Steve Liesman Organizations: Barclays, The Lindsey
Shrinking activity left factories resorting to layoffs, the survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore described the practise as happening "to a greater extent than in prior months." At face value, the ISM survey is consistent with an economy that is in recession. The ISM survey showed that transportation equipment was the only one of the six biggest industries reporting growth last month. ISM manufacturing PMIWEAK DEMANDThe ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index climbed to a still-subdued 45.6 from 42.6 in May amid increased caution from businesses and consumers alike.
Persons: Timothy Fiore, payrolls, Andrew Hunter, Jonathan Millar, José Torres, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing Business Survey, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, PMI, Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Manufacturers, Machinery, Commerce Department, Interactive Brokers, Thomson Locations: homebuilding WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Miami
The unchanged reading in consumer spending last month, reported by the Commerce Department, followed a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in February. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was previously reported to have increased 0.2% in February. Last month's flat reading in consumer spending set consumption and the overall economy on a lower growth path in the second quarter. Consumer spending is plateauing likely as Americans become more averse to higher prices. The so-called core PCE price index gained 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March after rising 4.7% in February.
"Wage growth is decelerating less than inflation," said Kate Bahn, chief economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth in Washington. It will also incorporate new population estimates in the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived. As such January's unemployment rate will not be directly comparable to December. REVISIONS IN FOCUSThe revisions will attract attention after researchers at the Philadelphia Fed published a paper in December that suggested employment growth in the second quarter was overstated by a million jobs. Economists will be closely watching the labor force for signs whether the current pace of job growth will persist.
It projects the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points in December and by 50 basis points in February 2023. For the first meeting of 2023, Barclays foresees a rate hike of 50 basis points, up from its past forecast of 25 basis points. Put together, that would propel the fed funds rate to a range of 5% to 5.25% in February. After the September inflation report, investors believe the odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at the December Fed meeting have doubled. The Fed is expected on November 1-2 to deliver its fourth straight rate hike of 75 basis points and its sixth increase of 2022.
Goldman Sachs The call : A 75 basis point move in November, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February, for a peak of 4.5%-4.75%, up half a percentage point from the previous expectation. Citigroup The call : November to see 75 basis points, followed by 50 in December and 25 in February, adding a cumulative 25 basis points for a terminal rate of 4.5%-4.75%. Both calls were 25 basis points higher than previous. One more 25 basis point hike in February, followed by a 50 basis point cut "in the latter portion of the year." UBS The call : 75 basis points in November, another 50 in December, with three 25 basis point cuts later in 2023.
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